Putin, following Aliyev's example, is trying to impose a referendum on Armenia. He will likely activate all his tools of influence this autumn, ranging from political forces to church circles. Aram Sargsyan
Putin, following Aliyev's example, is trying to impose a referendum on Armenia. He will likely activate all his tools of influence this autumn, ranging from political forces to church circles. Aram Sargsyan
On July 6, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan participated, in a ceremonial sense, in an event inappropriate for the head of state in Yekaterinburg and met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, trying to resolve the issue of lifting Russian restrictions on Armenian goods.
As it turns out, the issue was not resolved. Moreover, the list of restrictions was expanded, and Mishustin did not even congratulate Pashinyan on his re-election as Prime Minister.
Today, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin on his own initiative. According to circulated information, the Russian President demanded that the requirements of the EAEU leaders be met, to clearly determine whether Armenia will move towards the EU or the EAEU, and to resolve this issue through a referendum. Thus, once again, the issue was not resolved. Moreover, Putin also did not congratulate Pashinyan on his re-election as Prime Minister.
In essence, the Armenian Prime Minister has exhausted all possible options for resolving the situation with Russia and the EAEU. It turns out that the idea previously expressed by Pashinyan, that "the EAEU does not exist," is becoming a reality. If it doesn't exist, then it doesn't exist.
In my opinion, the conclusion is as follows: Russia does not perceive Nikol Pashinyan as a full-fledged partner in the position of Prime Minister. Putin, following Aliyev's example, is trying to impose a referendum on Armenia. For this purpose, he will likely activate all his influence tools in the fall, from political forces to church circles. If he does not achieve the desired result through this path, then close to winter, in order to strengthen the wave of protests, he may sharply raise the price of gas supplied to Armenia.
What should Armenia do?
1. Withdraw from the CSTO.
2. Withdraw from the unified air defense system.
3. Accelerate the process of signing the Free Trade and Association Agreement with the EU, which has been pending since 2013.
The sequence of further steps should be developed, taking into account Russia's response to these three steps.
By the way, both Georgia and Azerbaijan are not members of the EAEU. Moreover, Georgia does not even have diplomatic relations with Russia, yet its trade and economic ties, both direct and shadowy, including gas cooperation, are not less than those of Armenia.
Leaving the EAEU is Armenia's sovereign right. There is no legal requirement to hold a referendum for both joining and leaving. And there are those who are waiting for and supporting Armenia after leaving. Don't worry.
One thing, in my opinion, is obvious: countries that have exited the sphere of Russian influence today, as a rule, live more democratically, are more protected, and have a more prosperous life than the states remaining in the CSTO and EAEU."
* This text was automatically translated by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
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