Preparation for a new agreement around Hormuz? Why did the US suspend attacks against Iran? - Shahan Gantaharyan
28-07-2026 15:53 Interviews
"Noyan Tapan" has spoken with political analyst Shahan Ghantaharyan.
– The U.S. has temporarily suspended large-scale attacks against Iran, but at the same time warns that they could resume. How do you assess this situation?
– This is a pause in military pressure, not its end. Washington is effectively maintaining the threat of force, turning it into a negotiating lever. This tactic is not new; first, the level of tension is raised, and then a negotiating window is created to negotiate under more favorable conditions.
– What is the most noteworthy aspect at this stage?
– The most important factor is that the suspension of large-scale attacks coincides temporally with the start of negotiations between Tehran and Muscat. Although the agenda of the negotiations is not published at the official level, this coincidence is hard to consider coincidental. It suggests that military pressure and the diplomatic process are components of a single overarching strategy.
– Why has Oman found itself at the center of this process?
– Oman has long been a reliable communication platform for the U.S. and Iran. Before the escalation of regional war, it mediated particularly in negotiations around the nuclear program, gradually taking on a role that was previously more reserved for Qatar. However, today, Oman’s role appears to be changing. It is no longer just a mediator but may become a direct interested party.
– What is this related to?
– Most likely, it is related to the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s geographical position makes it a key player in any new management system for this strategic passage. If negotiations are currently taking place in Muscat, it is hard to assume that the issue of Hormuz is not at their core.
– However, before the war, Hormuz was functioning normally. What has changed?
– That is the main question. Previously, there was no issue between Iran and Oman regarding the exploitation of Hormuz. If today this topic has become the subject of negotiations, one can assume that the discussion is not about whether the strait is open or closed, but rather about its future management system. The conversation may relate to the establishment of new mechanisms for control, navigation security, financial or customs arrangements.
– So, could a new status for Hormuz be established?
– Yes, this possibility cannot be ruled out. A new status implies new agreements, new roles, and new responsibilities. In that case, Oman could gain greater functions, becoming not only a mediator but also a participant in the management or control system.
– And who could become the guarantor of that system?
– If a new system is being created, then guarantees for its implementation are also necessary. Therefore, it is logical to assume that the issue of a guarantor or controlling actor is also being discussed. Without such a mechanism, it will be difficult to reach a long-term agreement. This already implies the involvement of the U.S. in the new status of Hormuz.
– Can it be said that Trump's decision aims to provide an opportunity for these negotiations?
– That is one of the most likely explanations. If Tehran has agreed to start negotiations with Oman, then Washington could temporarily halt military operations to assess how willing the parties are to move towards compromise. However, the threat of force remains as a key tool of negotiating pressure.
– Can this phase be considered a turning point?
– Not yet. This is a transitional phase. The suspension of attacks does not mean a ceasefire, just as the start of negotiations does not mean an agreement. The parties are still trying to shape the framework for future agreements from more advantageous positions. If the current negotiations are focused on Hormuz, then their outcomes could significantly impact not only Iran-U.S. relations but also the security of the entire Gulf and the future of global energy corridors.
* This text was automatically translated by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
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