What is Azerbaijan's motivation to "put an end to Russia's dominance"?
27-07-2026 16:40 Politics
1in.am Azerbaijan has put an end to Russia's dominance in the South Caucasus. This conclusion has been reached by the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service. The information was disseminated by the Baku-based ruling minval.az without citing the original source. It seems that the Azerbaijani media is more interested in the internal and external influence of the material rather than its credibility. Especially since the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service specifically highlighted the importance of Ilham Aliyev's statement in Berlin about "the readiness to completely replace Russia in the European energy market."
In the pre-war year of 2021, Russia exported 155 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. Azerbaijan is obligated to export a total of 20 billion cubic meters of gas to EU countries by 2027. The enormous difference in volumes indicates that Azerbaijan simply cannot replace Russia in the European gas market. As they say, it is not at that level.
But the external political "legend" has been woven, and Ukraine has supported Aliyev at the level of the Foreign Intelligence Service. Moreover, this information was disseminated in the context of the Iranian cargo ship being hit in the Caspian Sea and Tehran's harsh statement towards Ukraine on that occasion.
In an interview with Fox News, Zelensky stated that Iran has been "participating in the war against Ukraine since the first year." He cited "irrefutable evidence" of Iran supplying drones to Russia and later providing production licenses and technologies. The logistics of cargo transportation between Russia and Iran, and vice versa, is at least "mediated" through Azerbaijan from an intelligence perspective.
It can be assumed that the propaganda of Azerbaijan's "readiness to ensure the energy security of the European Union," which no one actually believes in, is a bonus given to Aliyev in the context of "obstructing" the strategic communication between Russia and Iran, which will most likely operate in the short term. The energy infrastructure between Russia and Europe has mostly been preserved and can be quickly reactivated after the Ukrainian settlement.
It would be naive to say that Ilham Aliyev does not understand this or has not calculated that Azerbaijan should not allow such "adventures" arising from the relationship between Russia and Iran. Therefore, what is his motivation for "ending Russia's dominance" in the South Caucasus? This question should primarily concern Armenia. All other "players," considering their "weight class," can "always have alternatives."
* This text was automatically translated by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
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